With the start of summer coming soon, many are hopeful that the warmer weather will slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19. There have been hints from lab experiments that increased temperature and humidity may reduce the viability of SARS-CoV-2. Meanwhile, other coronaviruses that cause less severe diseases, such as the common cold, do spread more slowly among people during the summer.
We’ll obviously have to wait a few months to get the data. But for now, many researchers have their doubts that the COVID-19 pandemic will enter a needed summertime lull. Among them are some experts on infectious disease transmission and climate modeling, who ran a series of sophisticated computer simulations of how the virus will likely spread over the coming months [1]. This research team found that humans’ current lack of immunity to SARS-CoV-2—not the weather—will likely be a primary factor driving the continued, rapid spread of the novel coronavirus this summer and into the fall.
, come from studies led by Rachel Baker and Bryan Grenfell at Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton, NJ. The Grenfell lab has long studied the dynamics of infectious illnesses, including seasonal influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Last year, they published one of the first studies to look at how our warming climate might influence those dynamics in the coming years [2].
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Those earlier studies focused on well-known human infectious diseases. Less clear is how seasonal variations in the weather might modulate the spread of a new virus that the vast majority of people and their immune systems have yet to encounter.
In the new study, the researchers developed a mathematical model to simulate how seasonal changes in temperature might influence the trajectory of COVID-19 in cities around the world. Of course, because the virus emerged on the scene only recently, we don’t know very much about how it will respond to warming conditions. So, the researchers ran three different scenarios based on what’s known about the role of climate in the spread of other viruses, including two coronaviruses, called OC43 and HKU1, that are known to cause common colds in people.
In all three scenarios, their models showed that climate only would become an important seasonal factor in controlling COVID-19 once a large proportion of people within a given community are immune or resistant to infection. In fact, the team found that, even if one assumes that SARS-CoV-2 is as sensitive to climate as other seasonal viruses, summer heat still would not be enough of a mitigator right now to slow its initial, rapid spread through the human population. That’s also clear from the rapid spread of COVID-19 that’s currently occurring in Brazil, Ecuador, and some other tropical nations.
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Over the longer term, as more people develop immunity, the researchers suggest that COVID-19 may likely fall into a seasonal pattern similar to those seen with diseases caused by other coronaviruses. Long before then, NIH is working intensively with partners from all sectors to make sure that safe, effective treatments and vaccines will be available to help prevent the tragic, heavy loss of life that we’re seeing now.
Of course, climate is just one key factor to consider in evaluating the course of this disease. And, there is a glimmer of hope in one of the group’s models. The researchers incorporated the effects of control measures, such as physical distancing, with climate. It appears from this model that such measures, in combination with warm temperatures, actually might combine well to help slow the spread of this devastating virus. It’s a reminder that physical distancing will remain our best weapon into the summer to slow or prevent the spread of COVID-19. So, keep wearing those masks and staying 6 feet or more apart!
[1] Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Baker RE, Yang W, Vecchi GA, Metcalf CJE, Grenfell BT. Science. 2020 May 18. [Online ahead of print.]
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[2] Epidemic dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus in current and future climates. Baker RE, Mahmud AS, Wagner CE, Yang W, Pitzer VE, Viboud C, Vecchi GA, Metcalf CJE, Grenfell BT.Nat Commun. 2019 Dec 4;10(1):5512.
Tags: Brazil, climate, climate modeling, climate science, common cold, computer simulations, coronavirus, COVID-19, disease transmission, Ecuador, heat, HKU1 coronavirus, humidity, infectious disease, influenza, novel coronavirus, OC43 coronavirus, pandemic, physical distancing, respiratory syncytial virus, RSV, SARS-CoV-2, seasonal, social distancing, summer, summer camp, tropicalMore than 2 million people in the United States are getting vaccinated against the coronavirus every day, but case counts are once again on the rise as some states begin to lift public health restrictions. Now, Americans are looking toward the warmer months ahead and wondering: What will our second summer in the COVID era be like?
Right now, a little more than one in six people, or 15.8 percent of the population, have been fully immunized. Federal guidance on how to go about life post-vaccination is still emerging, but what we know so far — like that fully vaccinated people can safely gather with other fully vaccinated people inside without masks — is encouraging.
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The promise of protection from any of the three shots that have been authorized in the United States offers a much-needed beacon of hope, even as researchers are still collecting important data on these vaccines. A recent study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention involving Pfizer and Moderna’s mRNA vaccines concluded that fully vaccinated people were 90 percent less likely to become infected with the coronavirus in “real-world conditions” like the workplace. But there are a couple key questions we just don’t have the answers to yet.
It’s not clear how long the protection given by any existing COVID-19 vaccine lasts, or whether the vaccinated can still transmit the virus to the unvaccinated. Data so far suggests that these vaccines provide meaningful protection against more transmissible variants of the virus, but measures like wearing a mask and keeping a distance from others in public places will remain crucial to stop their spread in the first place.
On Monday, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky warned that the current state of the pandemic in the U.S. — where cases, hospitalizations and deaths are ticking up, and just under 1, 000 people are losing their lives to COVID-19 each day — bears an unsettling resemblance to what things looked like in some European nations weeks prior to the spike in cases they’re seeing now.
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“We can change this trajectory of the pandemic, but it will take all of us recommitting to following the public health prevention strategies consistently while we work to get the American public vaccinated, ” Walensky said.
Easing up on those prevention strategies too soon threatens to undo the significant progress that’s been made in this country over the past several weeks to get this virus under control. That’s why the push to get back to some version of “normal” life should “be a dial and not a switch, ” according to Dr. Preeti Malani, chief health officer and a professor of medicine in the infectious diseases division at the University of Michigan.
The safer way to approach socializing in an ongoing pandemic involves a similar risk assessment to the one many people have been exercising since stay-at-home orders were lifted months ago, rather than throwing caution to the wind.
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“It’s important to continue to be very vigilant, to wear masks, physically distance, wash your hands and get your vaccine when it’s your turn, ” said Dr. Susan Bailey, president of the American Medical Association. “I think we’re much better off than where we were, but we are not out of the woods yet.”
Here’s a closer look at some of the variables that will determine how the pandemic plays out in the U.S. over the next few months, plus some tips you can use when making your own summer plans.
When you’re deciding whether to attend a gathering or spend time with friends and family in the coming months, the CDC recommends keeping some key guidelines in mind:
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The same rules that applied last summer still apply to this one. It’s much safer to get together with people outside than inside — that goes for dining out at restaurants, too — especially if someone is unvaccinated.
CDC guidance says that fully vaccinated people can safely be unmasked around unvaccinated people from one other household indoors, but only if those people are at a low risk of developing a severe case of COVID-19. That means it’s safer for vaccinated grandparents to spend time with their unvaccinated children or grandchildren than it is for unvaccinated elders to see their vaccinated loved ones.
It’s difficult to accept that some of the hallmarks of pre-pandemic life, like packed bars or concert venues, most likely won’t be safe options anytime soon. But the good news is that plenty of activities that would’ve been risky a year ago, like getting together with people outside your household, are much safer with basic safety measures in place, especially if all parties involved are vaccinated.
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“Focus on what you can do and not what you can’t, ” Malani said. “We can do a lot of things, but
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