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By Noam Levin Noam Levin Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar View Publications 1, 2, * , Marta Yebra Marta Yebra Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar View Publications 3, 4 and Stuart Phinn Stuart Phinn Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar View Publications 2
The summer season of 2019–2020 has been named Australia’s Black Summer because of the large forest fires that burnt for months in southeast Australia, affecting millions of Australia’s citizens and hundreds of millions of animals and capturing global media attention. This extensive fire season has been attributed to the global climate crisis, a long drought season and extreme fire weather conditions. Our aim in this study was to examine the factors that have led some of the wildfires to burn over larger areas for a longer duration and to cause more damage to vegetation. To this end, we studied all large forest and non-forest fires (>100 km
) that burnt in Australia between September 2019 and mid-February 2020 (Australia’s Black Summer fires), focusing on the forest fires in southeast Australia. We used a segmentation algorithm to define individual polygons of large fires based on the burn date from NASA’s Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) active fires product and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) burnt area product (MCD64A1). For each of the wildfires, we calculated the following 10 response variables, which served as proxies for the fires’ extent in space and time, spread and intensity: fire area, fire duration (days), the average spread of fire (area/days), fire radiative power (FRP; as detected by NASA’s MODIS Collection 6 active fires product (MCD14ML)), two burn severity products, and changes in vegetation as a result of the fire (as calculated using the vegetation health index (VHI) derived from AVHRR and VIIRS as well as live fuel moisture content (LFMC), photosynthetic vegetation (PV) and combined photosynthetic and non-photosynthetic vegetation (PV+NPV) derived from MODIS). We also computed more than 30 climatic, vegetation and anthropogenic variables based on remotely sensed derived variables, climatic time series and land cover datasets, which served as the explanatory variables. Altogether, 391 large fires were identified for Australia’s Black Summer. These included 205 forest fires with an average area of 584 km
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; 63 of the forest fires took place in southeast (SE) Australia (the area between Fraser Island, Queensland, and Kangaroo Island, South Australia), with an average area of 1097 km
. Australia’s Black Summer forest fires burnt for more days compared with non-forest fires. Overall, the stepwise regression models were most successful at explaining the response variables for the forest fires in SE Australia (n = 63; median-adjusted R
Of 48.2%). The two response variables that were best explained by the explanatory variables used as proxies for fires’ extent, spread and intensity across all models for the Black Summer forest and non-forest fires were the change in PV due to fire (median-adjusted R
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Of 66.3%). Amongst the variables we examined, vegetation and fuel-related variables (such as previous frequency of fires and the conditions of the vegetation before the fire) were found to be more prevalent in the multivariate models for explaining the response variables in comparison with climatic and anthropogenic variables. This result suggests that better management of wildland–urban interfaces and natural vegetation using cultural and prescribed burning as well as planning landscapes with less flammable and more fire-tolerant ground cover plants may reduce fire risk to communities living near forests, but this is challenging given the sheer size and diversity of ecosystems in Australia.
Wildfires are part of the natural functioning of ecosystems [1, 2]. However, human activity has transformed the natural regime of wildfires via changes in the ignition causes, the properties of the vegetation that is available to burn (fuel) and the management of natural vegetation (via grazing, agriculture, prescribed burning, deforestation and planting) and, in the last few decades, the global climate crisis and global warming [3, 4, 5]. For wildfires to start and spread, four conditions have to be satisfied [6]: available biomass to burn, that the moisture content of the vegetation will be low enough so that it can be ignited, that there will be meteorological conditions favouring the propagation of wildfires (high temperatures, low relative humidity, strong winds), and that there be an ignition source, whether natural (e.g., lightning) or anthropogenic (arson, negligence, accidents). Wildfires may develop and present a significant hazard and danger to infrastructure, human life and natural ecosystems, and, in recent years, there have been several cases of wildfires that have attracted the attention of global media, such as the large wildfires in western Canada and California [7, 8], the fires in Chile in January 2017 [9], the fires in the Amazon in August 2019 [10, 11], and, in the southern hemisphere summer of 2019/2020, the fires in southeast (SE) Australia [12, 13]. Given that wildfires in different regions of the world behave differently as a function of local combinations of weather, vegetation and human activity, which affect their ignition and propagation, wildfires in different pyromes should be studied to understand their underlying drivers and behaviours [14, 15]. The risk from wildfires to humans is also increasing due to an increase in population, resulting in more people living near forested areas, in the area known as the wildland–urban interface (WUI; [16, 17]). The WUI region is more susceptible to wildfires due to its proximity to human settled areas, which are often the source of ignitions [18]; on the other hand, people living in the WUI region are more exposed to risk from wildfires. Within Australia, WUI issues are mostly restricted to forest fires in the south, southwest and southeast of Australia, given that savannah fires in Australia are in remote and sparsely populated areas. Australia is considered a wildfire-prone continent, especially in the grassy savannah landscapes in northern Australia [19], where there are frequent low-intensity fires, whereas, in the forests of southern Australia, fires are less frequent but can be extremely intense [20]. The 2019–2020 fire season in Australia, also known as Australia’s Black Summer, was exceptional in terms of the overall forest area that was burnt in SE Australia [13, 21, 22] and in the exposure of the Australian population to smoke from the fire [23], in addition to thousands of houses that were destroyed [24] and the impact on the habitat of many Australian faunal, invertebrate and plant species [25, 26, 27]. A recent study has associated large forest fires (>12.5 km
) in southern Australia (covering the states of New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia as well as the Australian Capital Territory and the southwest corner of Western Australia) for the period between 1975 and 2014 with fuel dryness and fire weather [28]. What was especially notable in Australia’s Black Summer was that 21% of temperate broadleaf and mixed forest areas was burnt, whereas, in most forest biomes globally, less than 2% of the area is annually burnt [13]. The percentage of forested area burnt was also unprecedented for Australia; the eucalypt forest area burnt was much higher than the annual average for the past 18 years and the largest since at least 1851 [22]. Recent reports have pointed out the role of climate change and extended drought in this exceptional fire season [29, 30, 31], in addition to logging, the forest management associated with it [32] and the accumulation of fuel loads [33]. However, [34] argued that the hypothesis that fuel loads were the cause of these fires remains to be tested, and it should account for a range of interacting factors of climatic, vegetation and anthropogenic variables. While [35] have analyzed the causes for fire severity at the grid cell level using a range of anthropogenic and climatic variables, so far, an analysis of the drivers of individual wildfires of Australia’s Black Summer has not been undertaken.
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In this paper, we aimed to analyze the extent and the climatic, biological and anthropogenic drivers of the large fires (>100 km
) that took place in SE Australia between September 2019 and mid-February 2020
Of 66.3%). Amongst the variables we examined, vegetation and fuel-related variables (such as previous frequency of fires and the conditions of the vegetation before the fire) were found to be more prevalent in the multivariate models for explaining the response variables in comparison with climatic and anthropogenic variables. This result suggests that better management of wildland–urban interfaces and natural vegetation using cultural and prescribed burning as well as planning landscapes with less flammable and more fire-tolerant ground cover plants may reduce fire risk to communities living near forests, but this is challenging given the sheer size and diversity of ecosystems in Australia.
Wildfires are part of the natural functioning of ecosystems [1, 2]. However, human activity has transformed the natural regime of wildfires via changes in the ignition causes, the properties of the vegetation that is available to burn (fuel) and the management of natural vegetation (via grazing, agriculture, prescribed burning, deforestation and planting) and, in the last few decades, the global climate crisis and global warming [3, 4, 5]. For wildfires to start and spread, four conditions have to be satisfied [6]: available biomass to burn, that the moisture content of the vegetation will be low enough so that it can be ignited, that there will be meteorological conditions favouring the propagation of wildfires (high temperatures, low relative humidity, strong winds), and that there be an ignition source, whether natural (e.g., lightning) or anthropogenic (arson, negligence, accidents). Wildfires may develop and present a significant hazard and danger to infrastructure, human life and natural ecosystems, and, in recent years, there have been several cases of wildfires that have attracted the attention of global media, such as the large wildfires in western Canada and California [7, 8], the fires in Chile in January 2017 [9], the fires in the Amazon in August 2019 [10, 11], and, in the southern hemisphere summer of 2019/2020, the fires in southeast (SE) Australia [12, 13]. Given that wildfires in different regions of the world behave differently as a function of local combinations of weather, vegetation and human activity, which affect their ignition and propagation, wildfires in different pyromes should be studied to understand their underlying drivers and behaviours [14, 15]. The risk from wildfires to humans is also increasing due to an increase in population, resulting in more people living near forested areas, in the area known as the wildland–urban interface (WUI; [16, 17]). The WUI region is more susceptible to wildfires due to its proximity to human settled areas, which are often the source of ignitions [18]; on the other hand, people living in the WUI region are more exposed to risk from wildfires. Within Australia, WUI issues are mostly restricted to forest fires in the south, southwest and southeast of Australia, given that savannah fires in Australia are in remote and sparsely populated areas. Australia is considered a wildfire-prone continent, especially in the grassy savannah landscapes in northern Australia [19], where there are frequent low-intensity fires, whereas, in the forests of southern Australia, fires are less frequent but can be extremely intense [20]. The 2019–2020 fire season in Australia, also known as Australia’s Black Summer, was exceptional in terms of the overall forest area that was burnt in SE Australia [13, 21, 22] and in the exposure of the Australian population to smoke from the fire [23], in addition to thousands of houses that were destroyed [24] and the impact on the habitat of many Australian faunal, invertebrate and plant species [25, 26, 27]. A recent study has associated large forest fires (>12.5 km
) in southern Australia (covering the states of New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia as well as the Australian Capital Territory and the southwest corner of Western Australia) for the period between 1975 and 2014 with fuel dryness and fire weather [28]. What was especially notable in Australia’s Black Summer was that 21% of temperate broadleaf and mixed forest areas was burnt, whereas, in most forest biomes globally, less than 2% of the area is annually burnt [13]. The percentage of forested area burnt was also unprecedented for Australia; the eucalypt forest area burnt was much higher than the annual average for the past 18 years and the largest since at least 1851 [22]. Recent reports have pointed out the role of climate change and extended drought in this exceptional fire season [29, 30, 31], in addition to logging, the forest management associated with it [32] and the accumulation of fuel loads [33]. However, [34] argued that the hypothesis that fuel loads were the cause of these fires remains to be tested, and it should account for a range of interacting factors of climatic, vegetation and anthropogenic variables. While [35] have analyzed the causes for fire severity at the grid cell level using a range of anthropogenic and climatic variables, so far, an analysis of the drivers of individual wildfires of Australia’s Black Summer has not been undertaken.
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In this paper, we aimed to analyze the extent and the climatic, biological and anthropogenic drivers of the large fires (>100 km
) that took place in SE Australia between September 2019 and mid-February 2020
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